Secret gap between India and China: What is 13 years or 18 years
We look at India-China year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2007, China 11%, India has reached 11.3 percent, so preach the Indian media in India more than China was. The second quarter, India reduced to 9.3%, indicating India has entered into a recession, and the author in June 2007 on the forecast before the end of October when the Indian economy is bound to ebb, according to quarterly GDP growth rate is decreased as long as the ring once more than 15% decline in rate, on the economic recession is defined as more than two consecutive quarters of international GDP decrease before the economic recession is defined as earlier, and afterwards he was right. Recalling the 2007 India-China economic, the author found that one year earlier than China, India entered into a recession.
GDP in India in 2008 for 6.7%, I believe that in this time of economic recession, even if the developed countries have access to more than 5 to 7 years in the Great Depression, and since the Indian economy in the world of this century when the economy is mostly 6% ~ 7%. Taken together, the 2010 and 2011, India’s GDP growth rate is 5% to 6% in 2011, India will be the annual GDP growth rate at 6% ~ 7%, and Anil say that a conservative estimate, India Annual GDP8%, the objective too.
I believe that by 2020 the gap between India and China from 13 years to 18 years, regardless of the accuracy of this derivation, but the gap between India and the expansion has become inevitable, according to the following:
1. A country’s economy will eventually be effective driving force left in the traces of GDP, therefore, seize the GDP growth rate and the total effect will be achieved.
China’s GDP is the total of 3 times that of India, China’s GDP growth in 2007 and 2008, respectively 13% and 9%, India corresponding to 9% and 6.7%, respectively, slower growth in China. By 2020, China for about 26 percent less total GDP, is the gap between India’s 13 years. Our GDP growth rate in India after an average of 8%, China 10%, the gap between India and China in 2020 have 17 years. Therefore, the gap between India and China has become inevitable that by 2020, the gap between India and China for 18 years is the basic accurate.
2. Anil that “India’s per capita income is less than 2.5 times in China, so India’s labor costs will be far lower than the same period China. Infrastructure in India to improve the situation, India will be stronger than the Chinese competitiveness. ”
The author believes that China’s per capita wage is 2.5 times that of India, the competitiveness of reasonable for speaking while in India, but the reality is the competitiveness of the Chinese side. Both the competitiveness of products supporting the industrial chain in the entire chain, is also reflected in the water, electricity, taxes, interest rates, exchange rates, raw material costs, etc. The overall costs, wages and infrastructure, the competitiveness of products, only a very small part of it . In fact, the competitiveness of their products with the CPI, government subsidies, procurement of large-scale production, can receive large orders, the availability of low-interest loans, can have very low in the raw materials of adequate funding to hunters and so on. Therefore, the competitiveness of India is not only the competitiveness of the enterprise level, or platform competition, the system of competition, the competitive environment and the overall competitiveness.
In short, I believe, not only from the life of the data is derived out of the gap between India and China
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